Irish property market...

[El Gordo]

Supply is already larger than demand, and a further 120,000 people are expected to emigrate by the end of 2011. Those are people who won't need a place to live in Ireland. There may be brief exceptions, but I would guess that ThomasJ is right that we can't expect any meaningful recovery in house prices before 2020.

[warmcome]

The banks have to get the mortgage product going again and then courting
couples etc with plans can start to buy a home. very few people walking about
with 200k in the back pocket.

[warmcome]

Well now we can all see some practical reasons why the country is
in bad shape. i have seen good property making realistic money though.
thank god know one knows for certain what will happen.

[Westsidex]

because demand was greater than supply and land values became inflated.

simple,
Westside.

[pcred]

I agree, although the builders did make a vast sums during the boom, this was enabled by the banks overselling mortgages and dictating land prices to builders, and the councils/planners allowing huge developments that in hind site should never been allowed.

I'll give an example of where the bank tried to drive up the price of land just before the arse fell out of the property bubble:
Builder A has large areas of land in Co. Dublin and trying to sell off a portion of it for €20 million the bank wouldn't release the charges on it because they said it was being sold for less than its market value. Now after the slump the same undevelloped land would be doing well to fetch one million, and Nama are after builder A.

Not naming people, banks or areas for privacy reason, but that is true.

[fiatpunter]

I still think that the market has some way to fall across the country. For our own long term benefit we need to realise that we have paid too much for houses for about 10 years and maybe 12.

I am an owner myself, purchased current place in 2005 so while it is worth significantly less than I paid for it, we sold an investment property since and have a relatively small mortgage. I'll still lose in my hope for scenario but the kids will benefit.

[Westsidex]

I agree, although the builders did make a vast sums during the boom, this was enabled by the banks overselling mortgages and dictating land prices to builders, and the councils/planners allowing huge developments that in hind site should never been allowed.

I'll give an example of where the bank tried to drive up the price of land just before the arse fell out of the property bubble:
Builder A has large areas of land in Co. Dublin and trying to sell off a portion of it for €20 million the bank wouldn't release the charges on it because they said it was being sold for less than its market value. Now after the slump the same undevelloped land would be doing well to fetch one million, and Nama are after builder A.

Not naming people, banks or areas for privacy reason, but that is true.

Its all a cycle thats unretainable. Developers were overpaying for land therefore overborrowing at a rate that couldnt be sustained. Now they owe the same ammount on land and sites of lesser values. It wasnt helped by the fact that anyone who owned a decent plot of land in a reasonably prime location could all of a sudden become a multimillionaire overnight. What everyone forgot was that the weak link in the whole chain was an economic downturn which of course happened and drove prices down.

Westside.

[Westsidex]

I still think that the market has some way to fall across the country. For our own long term benefit we need to realise that we have paid too much for houses for about 10 years and maybe 12.

I am an owner myself, purchased current place in 2005 so while it is worth significantly less than I paid for it, we sold an investment property since and have a relatively small mortgage. I'll still lose in my hope for scenario but the kids will benefit.

The scarey part is that with the drops in value ,property is still way over priced here in Ireland.

Westside.

[warmcome]

Am I the only person with a sperm of optimism in this land?
My brother bought an apartment over in Galway city-€280k.
now agents and myself reckon he could get €195k.
Its definately worth €140k which is the 50% were talkin' about?
you reckon you or any bob could create that/there today for €140k?
you boys say way more to go-expect to see a lot of Chinese people here soon then!
This is a 1st world country-not my thing but perfect for 'baby factories' etc
If houses average out at €100k-get ready for the influx of sterling-people of
the world aint stupid-everything has to balance out with world markets etc...

[ber]

I think for a recovery in a property market u will need people to start buying investment properties again but
2 things are against this 1/ The uncertainty that rents may fall further and undermine returns and also we are
going to have a property tax in some shape or form in the not too distant future ,and until its know what form
it will take and how penal it will be investors will be slow to commit