Ukraine

[Stephanie]

I think prob easiest and probably the correct guess is ‘NATO’ ..

But I think most people don’t even Grasp the WHY .




On another page :

On the back of the annexation of new territories , Ukraine urgently seeking NATO membership .

The Wrinkle : there can be no acceptance of a new member so long there’s any land dispute pending .

: perhaps Putin cleverer than given credit >>

Annex : prob was hoping to score points back home , but most importantly now threw a new

roadblock to Ukraine’s NATO hopes .

[Forceuser]

Russia lost their Only bargaining tool by losing the pipeline .

It’s been , and it was going to be a game of chicken with Germany come this winter .

Germany : not only is it heating they’re losing , their Industry is reliant on gas / energy .

If they cannot replace this lost stream of energy : their industry be kaput in v short time .


Russia was able to dangle salvation in front of Germany for when the social unrest would’ve / will come .

Russia lost their Only ace . / other than threatening nukes .

Rus had No reason to blow it .

but is it really a bargaining tool if it has no real power?

the gas has been off going on a month now and it doesn't seem to have
been advantageous to russia at all.

the weapons and aid have continued to flow and the rhetoric of unwavering
support for Ukraine has not changed.
the talk has all been of eventual non-reliance and price caps

i dunno,i guess its all just idle speculation until some facts bubble to the
surface (pun intended)

[WeeJimmy]

Its the US behind it all and blaming others, its very obvious, theyre cheating their own citizens so why would they care about other nations

[Forceuser]

Reports of imminent Ukrainian encirclement of the critical rail hub city of Lyman

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=41bff38c2dcd

looks like they finished the job

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63102220

[Wexfordman]

looks like they finished the job
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63102220

This is turning into a tragedy for both Russia and Ukraine. Even if the people of East Ukraine want Russian citizenship Putin has gone about achieving his goals in the wrong way..

[pegmyass85]

but is it really a bargaining tool if it has no real power?

the gas has been off going on a month now and it doesn't seem to have
been advantageous to russia at all.

the weapons and aid have continued to flow and the rhetoric of unwavering
support for Ukraine has not changed.
the talk has all been of eventual non-reliance and price caps

i dunno,i guess its all just idle speculation until some facts bubble to the
surface (pun intended)

Of course it was an advantage to Russia. With the gas off Europe in particular Germany has to bring in gas from other sources as well as use its reserves.
Winter hasn't started yet and Germany will have very little reserves left when winter hits.
Russia used the gas lines to show they hold the advantage over the EU and in particular Germany
By turning the gas off before winter starts when the gas is needed most the Russians had hoped to force EU countries that needed the gas to pay in rubbles instead of dollars.
Sanctions means Russia can't trade in dollars o they need payment in rubbles to trade with other countries.
With the pipe lines gone they now have lost any leverage they had on the EU this winter.

We're all going to feel the effect of not having russian gas when countries are paying massive amounts of money from other sources. Basic economics tells us the less supply means more expensive.
If it's a bad cold winter many EU citizens are going to die because they can't afford to heat their homes.

[pegmyass85]

Russia has now cut off the gas supply to Italy. Another EU country that is going to have to find another gas supplier.
The EU can't get the supply needed from other sources quickly and they know it that's why gas wasn't part of the sanctions.

[Forceuser]

Of course it was an advantage to Russia. With the gas off Europe in particular Germany has to bring in gas from other sources as well as use its reserves.
Winter hasn't started yet and Germany will have very little reserves left when winter hits.
Russia used the gas lines to show they hold the advantage over the EU and in particular Germany
By turning the gas off before winter starts when the gas is needed most the Russians had hoped to force EU countries that needed the gas to pay in rubbles instead of dollars.
Sanctions means Russia can't trade in dollars o they need payment in rubbles to trade with other countries.
With the pipe lines gone they now have lost any leverage they had on the EU this winter.

We're all going to feel the effect of not having russian gas when countries are paying massive amounts of money from other sources. Basic economics tells us the less supply means more expensive.
If it's a bad cold winter many EU citizens are going to die because they can't afford to heat their homes.

thats all hypothetical potential scenarios
it def didn't seem to pay off for russia in the short term

German gas reserves currently stands at 91.32% and they have some time left before winter hits
to increase that so i think the effect of whatever may have been planned would not have been enough
to change their policy towards sanctions,support to Ukraine or anything else

doesn't matter now anyway,its all a moot point

[Forceuser]

Russia has now cut off the gas supply to Italy. Another EU country that is going to have to find another gas supplier.
The EU can't get the supply needed from other sources quickly and they know it that's why gas wasn't part of the sanctions.

Italy looks like they should be ok too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...as-from-russia

[Stephanie]

thats all hypothetical potential scenarios
it def didn't seem to pay off for russia in the short term

German gas reserves currently stands at 91.32% and they have some time left before winter hits
to increase that so i think the effect of whatever may have been planned would not have been enough
to change their policy towards sanctions,support to Ukraine or anything else

doesn't matter now anyway,its all a moot point

German economy will buckle at the knees lest there be a ‘solution’ .

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-europe-crisis

Thats bad news not only for Germany , but All of Europe .


So long the pipeline was functional , the temptation for Germany to break with EU to save its own skin

would have been too great .

: if Germany was to break the alliance - albeit for its own survival - , EU as a whole would’ve fallen apart .

That goes for NATO as well . : hence pipeline sabotage .

Not speculation .

Fact x


So long the possibility of Rus gas was there , Germany Had a choice :

Remain ‘modern’ , or remain ‘West’ .

: Remain ‘modern’ by keeping its Industry alive with Russian gas ; or

: Remain ‘West’ by not breaking ranks with the rest of EU and NATO alliance .

Now that choice had been taken away from them ,

for the ‘greater good’ of European Unity and the very survival of NATO .

And German industry may go whistle Dixie .